The Psychology of the 'Near Miss' in Video Poker
In the dimly lit casinos of the 1980s, a new breed of gambler emerged, entranced by video poker machines. Among the psychological forces at play, the 'near miss' phenomenon would prove particularly powerful—and uniquely different from its slot machine counterpart.
What Is a Near Miss?
A near miss occurs when a losing outcome closely resembles a winning one. In video poker, classic examples include:
Four cards to a Royal Flush, drawing a non-completing cardThree of a Kind that doesn't become a Full HouseFour-card Straight that draws off-suitAlmost any hand that's "one card away" from a major payoutThe Neuroscience of Almost Winning
Dopamine Response
Research has shown that near misses trigger dopamine release similar to actual wins:
Win: Strong dopamine surgeNear Miss: Moderate dopamine surgeClear Loss: Minimal dopamine changeThis neurological response reinforces continued play even after losing hands.
The Anticipation Effect
Near misses create a psychological pattern:
Possibility recognition: Player sees potential for major handAnticipation buildup: Hope rises as cards are revealedNear-miss moment: Almost achieving the goalFrustration/motivation: Desire to try again intensifiesVideo Poker's Unique Position
The Skill Illusion
Video poker near misses differ fundamentally from slot machine near misses because of the illusion of control:
In Slot Machines:
Near misses are often artificially weightedPlayer has zero control over outcomeResult is purely randomNear miss feels like "luck"In Video Poker:
Near misses are natural statistical occurrencesPlayer made choices that led thereStrategy affected the outcomeNear miss feels like "almost got it right"The Attribution Difference
When a video poker player narrowly misses a Royal Flush:
They may believe different hold decisions would have changed the outcomeThey analyze their strategy ("Should I have held differently?")They experience personal agency in the lossThey're motivated to "do better next time"This attribution to skill creates stronger engagement than pure-chance near misses.
Regulatory Distinctions
Fair Deal Requirements
In video poker, near misses are natural:
Nevada Regulation 14 requires fair deck simulationEach card has equal probability of appearingNear misses occur at mathematically expected ratesNo artificial weighting of outcomesSlot Machine Manipulation
By contrast, slot machines can be designed to produce more near misses:
Weighted reels: Jackpot symbols appear more often near paylinesVirtual mapping: Stop positions don't correspond to symbol frequencyPatent-protected techniques for engineering near missesPsychological Research Findings
The Illusion of Control Studies
Research by Langer (1975) demonstrated that:
Players who choose their own cards feel luckierActive participation increases confidenceNear misses feel more "controllable" when choices were madeThis effect is stronger in skill gamesVideo Poker Specific Research
Studies on video poker near misses found:
Players rate near misses as more frustrating than clear lossesFrustration correlates with motivation to continueBelief in skill moderates the near-miss effectExperienced players show stronger responsesThe Royal Flush Near Miss
The Ultimate Almost-Win
Missing a Royal Flush by one card creates intense psychological impact:
Probability: ~1 in 45,000 for the dealt four cards to a RoyalDraw completion: ~1 in 47 to completeCombined: Actually completing is rareNear miss frequency: Far more common than completionPlayer Experience
The Royal near miss typically involves:
Excitement at seeing four Royal cardsIntense focus during the drawCrushing disappointment at the missStrong motivation to "chase" the RoyalReplay of the hand ("What if I'd held differently?")Strategic Implications
When Near Misses Are Correct
Sometimes mathematically optimal play leads to near misses:
Holding 4 to a Royal over a paying handDrawing to longshots when EV supports itAccepting higher variance for greater returnEmotional Management
Successful video poker players learn to:
Expect near misses as part of the gameNot chase recent near misses (gambler's fallacy)Evaluate plays by EV, not recent outcomesManage emotional responses to almost-winsThe "Zone" and Near Misses
Flow State Disruption
Near misses can either:
Enhance the Zone:
Validate that big wins are possibleCreate anticipation for future handsMaintain engagementDisrupt the Zone:
Cause frustration that breaks rhythmLead to strategy deviationsTrigger loss-chasing behaviorResponsible Gambling Implications
Near Miss Awareness
Problem gambling research suggests:
Near misses contribute to continued playPlayers with gambling disorders show stronger near-miss responsesUnderstanding the psychology can help at-risk playersNear misses are not "signs of upcoming wins"Protective Factors
Video poker's transparency can be protective:
Players can learn actual probabilitiesStrategy study reveals true mathematicsIllusion of control can be checked against realityKnowledge may moderate near-miss effectsConclusion
The near miss in video poker represents a unique psychological phenomenon—a natural statistical occurrence that feels personal because of the game's skill element. Understanding this psychology helps players maintain perspective and make decisions based on mathematics rather than emotion.