Comparative Math: Linked vs. Standalone Progressives

Progressive jackpots come in different architectures, each with distinct mathematical properties. Understanding the differences between standalone and linked progressives is crucial for advantage players seeking positive expected value.

Progressive Architecture Types

Standalone Progressives

Definition: Single machine with its own jackpot

Characteristics:

Jackpot funded only by that machine's play

Grows more slowly

Hit less frequently (by definition—one machine)

Reset value typically lower

Player can track individual meter

Linked (Wide-Area) Progressives

Definition: Multiple machines contribute to shared jackpot

Characteristics:

Many machines fund the jackpot

Grows more quickly

Hit more frequently (more machines = more attempts)

Higher reset values

Large maximum jackpots possible

Proprietary Networks

Major networks include:

NetworkOperatorScopeMegabucksIGTNevada-wideWheel of FortuneIGTMulti-casinoLocal progressivesIndividual casinosSingle property

The Mathematics

Contribution Rate

Both types take from base RTP:

Standalone example:

Base 9/6 JoB: 99.54% RTP

Contribution: 1.5% to meter

Effective base RTP: 98.04%

Linked example:

Base 8/5 JoB: 97.30% RTP

Contribution: 2.5% to meter

Effective base RTP: 94.80%

Meter Movement

Standalone:

$$\text{Meter increase per hour} = \text{Hands/hour} \times \text{Avg bet} \times \text{Contribution rate}$$

Example: 600 hands/hour × $1.25 × 1.5% = $11.25/hour

Wide-Area:

$$\text{Meter increase} = \sum_{i=1}^{n} (\text{Machine}_i \text{ contribution})$$

With 1,000 machines at similar rates: $11,250/hour network-wide

Hit Frequency Comparison

Standalone (Royal Flush progressive):

Single machine: ~1 Royal per 40,000 hands

At 600 hands/hour: ~67 hours between Royals (on average)

Wide-Area (1,000 machines):

Network: ~1 Royal per 40 hands played network-wide

Hit frequency: Multiple times daily

Individual player experience: Same as standalone

Expected Value Analysis

Breakeven Calculation

Standalone:

$$EV = (\text{Base RTP} - \text{Contribution}) + \frac{\text{Meter}}{\text{Royal Probability} \times \text{Bet}}$$

Example at breakeven:

Base: 98.04%

Need: +1.96% from progressive

At 5-coin $1: Need ~$3,136 meter for 100% EV

Wide-Area:

Same formula, but:

Higher contribution (lower base)

Larger jackpots possible

More competition for the hit

Effective Hourly Value

Standalone at breakeven:

EV per hand: $0

Plus: Exclusive access to meter

Minus: Slow meter growth

Wide-Area at breakeven:

EV per hand: $0

Plus: Larger potential jackpot

Minus: Competition from other players

Strategic Implications

Standalone Advantages

For advantage players:

AdvantageReasonExclusive accessOnly you contribute when playingMeter controlCan estimate time to breakevenLower competitionNo other players hunting same jackpotPredictable growthSingle-variable calculation

Wide-Area Advantages

AdvantageReasonLarger jackpotsMore funding sourcesFaster growthMultiple contributorsLife-changing winsMaximum prizes higherMore frequent network hits(Though individual odds unchanged)

Player Strategy Differences

Standalone Strategy

Monitoring:

Track individual meter

Calculate precise breakeven

Time play when +EV

Execution:

Exclusive play when advantageous

No time pressure from competition

Can leave and return

Wide-Area Strategy

Monitoring:

Track network meter

Calculate breakeven for network

Assess competition level

Execution:

May need extended sessions

Competition creates time pressure

Consider multiple machine play

Casino Perspective

Why Offer Each Type

Standalone:

Lower maximum liability

Simpler accounting

Machine-level marketing

Local player loyalty

Wide-Area:

Large jackpot marketing value

Network effects (destination play)

Shared liability across properties

Progressive pools for smaller casinos

Contribution Differences

Casinos structure differently:

TypeTypical ContributionCasino ReserveStandalone1-2%20-50% of contributionWide-Area2-4%10-30% + network fees

Variance Comparison

Expected Wait Time

For a Royal Flush progressive:

Standalone:

Your expected wait: 40,000 hands

Your expected contribution before win: Proportional to meter

Variance: High (could be hand #1 or #100,000)

Wide-Area:

Your expected wait: Same (40,000 hands)

Network hit frequency: Much higher

But: You might not be the one who hits it

Psychological Factors

FactorStandaloneWide-AreaHit visibilityOnly your machineCould be anywhereAnticipationPersonalCollectiveDisappointmentNo one else won "yours"Someone else got itCelebrationPersonalShared network event

Practical Examples

Scenario: $5,000 Standalone at Breakeven

Only you are contributing

Playing 600 hands/hour

Contributing $11.25/hour to meter

If you leave, meter grows only when others play

Return when still +EV

Scenario: $500,000 Wide-Area at Breakeven

1,000 machines contributing

Meter growing ~$11,000/hour

Could hit any moment on any machine

Your individual contribution: Tiny fraction

Competition intense when +EV

Advantage Play Recommendations

When to Focus on Standalone

Lower bankroll

Prefer predictable situations

Value exclusive access

Can monitor specific machines

When to Target Wide-Area

Seeking life-changing wins

Higher risk tolerance

Enjoy competition

Larger bankroll available

Hybrid Approach

Many advantage players:

Monitor both types

Prioritize based on current opportunities

Adjust for competition levels

Consider all available options

The Evolution of Progressives

Modern Trends

Mystery progressives (random trigger)

Multi-level progressives

Community jackpots

Must-hit-by progressives

Impact on Standalone vs. Linked

New structures blur traditional lines:

Community jackpots: Linked play, individual triggers

Must-hit-by: Guaranteed hits creating clear +EV points

Multi-level: Combined standalone and linked features

Understanding the mathematical differences between progressive types enables informed decisions about where to invest time and money in pursuit of jackpots.