The Mathematics of Vulturing in Variable-State Video Poker

Vulturing represents one of the most accessible forms of advantage play in modern video poker, exploiting the persistent state mechanics of games like Ultimate X to achieve positive expected value.

Understanding Vulturing

What Is Vulturing?

Vulturing involves:

Finding variable-state machines abandoned by other players

Identifying positive equity left on the machine

Playing off that equity at reduced cost

Capturing value that previous player funded

Why It Works

Variable-state games like Ultimate X require doubled wagers to earn multipliers:

Player A bets 10 coins, wins, earns 2× multiplier

Player A leaves before using multiplier

Player B arrives, bets 5 coins (base), plays with 2× multiplier

Player B receives multiplied payout at half the cost

The Mathematics

Basic EV Calculation

The Vulture's Equation:

$$\text{EV} = (\text{Base RTP} \times \text{Multiplier}) - 100\%$$

Example with 2× multiplier on 9/6 Jacks or Better:

Base RTP: 99.54%

With 2× multiplier: 99.54% × 2 = 199.08%

Net EV: +99.08% for that hand

Multiplier Values (Ultimate X Standard)

Winning HandMultiplierSingle Hand EVRoyal Flush12×+1,094%Straight Flush10×+895%Four of a Kind7×+596%Full House5×+398%Flush4×+298%Straight3×+199%Three of a Kind2×+99%

Multi-Hand Considerations

Ultimate X is typically multi-hand (3-play, 5-play, 10-play):

Each hand has independent multipliers

Total machine value = Sum of individual hand multipliers

Some hands may have no multiplier (1×)

Example: 5-Play Ultimate X with mixed multipliers:

HandMultiplierBase EVAdjusted EV13×99.54%298.62%21×99.54%99.54%32×99.54%199.08%41×99.54%99.54%54×99.54%398.16%

Average EV: (298.62 + 99.54 + 199.08 + 99.54 + 398.16) / 5 = 218.99%

Net EV: +118.99%

Strategy Modifications

Adjusting for Multipliers

With active multipliers, optimal strategy changes:

Low Multipliers (2×):

Strategy changes minimal

Slightly more aggressive Royal draws

Standard priority generally maintained

High Multipliers (5×+):

Significant strategy adjustments

Royal draws become correct more often

Even breaking a made hand may be correct

Example Decision

Hand: K♠ Q♠ J♠ 10♠ 9♥ with 7× multiplier

Options:

Hold Royal draw (K-Q-J-10 suited): EV calculation favors Royal

Hold Straight (K-Q-J-10-9): Guaranteed payout at 7×

At 7× multiplier, the Royal draw becomes significantly more attractive than in standard play.

Practical Vulturing

Finding Machines

Vulturing requires:

Knowledge of which games have persistent states

Ability to identify machine status quickly

Casino familiarity

Optimal timing (shift changes, peak hours)

Machine Identification

Signs a machine may have value:

Credits remaining

Recent activity indicated

Chair still warm

Screen showing game state (if visible)

The Hunt Pattern

Effective vultures develop routes:

Check high-traffic areas

Monitor specific machine banks

Time patrols to player turnover patterns

Use casual approach to avoid attention

Casino Countermeasures

Technical Measures

CountermeasureEffectScreensaversHide multiplier stateAttract modesObscure machine statusAuto-timeoutState resets after inactivityMenu hidingRequire interaction to see state

Regulatory Constraints

Casinos cannot simply delete multipliers because:

GLI-11 standards treat them as player-funded equity

Deletion could be considered player theft

Regulatory compliance requires state preservation

Some jurisdictions have specific persistent-state rules

Operational Responses

Non-technical countermeasures:

"No loitering" policy enforcement

Surveillance monitoring of known vultures

Player tracking flags

Direct communication with identified APs

Economic Analysis

Hourly Value Estimation

Vulturing hourly rates depend on:

Finding frequency

Average multiplier value found

Machine denomination

Speed of identification

Example calculation:

Average find: 2.5 multiplier average

Finds per hour: 4

Average bet: $1.25 (5-coin quarter)

EV per find: +100% × $1.25 = $1.25

Hourly theoretical: $5.00

Reality Check

Actual vulturing returns are:

Highly variable

Location dependent

Subject to competition

Affected by casino tolerance

Ethical and Social Considerations

The Funded Equity Argument

Vultures argue:

Previous player chose to leave

Equity was abandoned property

Casino benefits if no one claims it

Similar to finding coins in slot trays

Casino Perspective

Casinos view vulturing as:

Disruptive to normal play

Potentially discouraging to other players

Exploitation of game mechanics

Worthy of countermeasures

Community Dynamics

In active vulturing locations:

Competition among vultures

Unwritten territorial conventions

Information asymmetry advantages

Occasional conflicts

Advanced Techniques

Value Calculation Speed

Expert vultures quickly calculate:

Total multiplier value across hands

Breakeven thresholds

Strategy adjustments needed

Expected play duration

Multi-Game Awareness

Some vultures expand beyond Ultimate X:

Super Times Pay machines

Multi-Strike Poker

Any game with persistent state

Slot bonus features

The Future of Vulturing

Industry Response

Game designers now consider:

Reducing vulturing opportunities

Faster state decay

Lower multiplier values

Alternative bonus structures

Regulatory Evolution

Standards may change regarding:

Persistent state requirements

Player equity definitions

Disclosure obligations

Timeout protocols

Vulturing represents a fascinating intersection of game design, mathematics, and advantage play—a modern opportunity created by the very mechanics designed to enhance player engagement.